0xdC83474BC4CDf4d037f8BE1EcA21cfa290aaBCD2-1772195983959
0xdc83474bc4cdf4d037f8be1eca21cfa290aabcd2
- Realised P&L
- $7.5k
- Volume
- $537.2k
- Markets traded
- 123
- Open portfolio
- $7.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded123
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.792 | $5.1k | +$1.9k |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.207 | $1.3k | −$1.9k |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.635 | $635.00 | −$255.00 |
| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? · Yes | 0.883 | 0.825 | $450.71 | −$31.48 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.585 | $165.77 | +$9.92 |
| Clavicular sentenced to prison? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.130 | $13.81 | −$1.06 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31? · No | 0.499 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$74.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.7kat 0.893US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.745US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.929Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.909US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.972 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 12:40 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.55 | $155.85 |
| 07-28 13:01 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31? | BUY | 0.4993333333 | $74.90 |
| 07-28 12:55 | Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.971 | $1.3k |
| 07-20 18:01 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $37.41 |
| 07-18 09:44 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.977 | $195.37 |
| 07-06 17:22 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | BUY | 0.8898909915 | $408.18 |
| 07-01 20:59 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $318.32 |
| 07-01 20:58 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $343.83 |
| 07-01 20:55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $495.11 |
| 07-01 20:44 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $63.80 |
| 07-01 20:37 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5729798195 | $579.49 |
| 07-01 20:36 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5699044105 | $596.20 |
| 07-01 14:08 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $17.74 |
| 07-01 08:47 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? | BUY | 0.9969716833 | $349.97 |
| 06-30 22:11 | Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $40.42 |