PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0xdC83474BC4CDf4d037f8BE1EcA21cfa290aaBCD2-1772195983959

0xdc83474bc4cdf4d037f8be1eca21cfa290aabcd2

Realised P&L
$7.5k
Volume
$537.2k
Markets traded
123
Open portfolio
$7.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded123
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration66.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.792$5.1k+$1.9k
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5000.207$1.3k$1.9k
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes0.8900.635$635.00$255.00
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? · Yes0.8830.825$450.71$31.48
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes0.5500.585$165.77+$9.92
Clavicular sentenced to prison? · Yes0.1400.130$13.81$1.06
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31? · No0.4990.000$0.00$74.90

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 12:40Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?BUY0.55$155.85
07-28 13:01Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?BUY0.4993333333$74.90
07-28 12:55Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.971$1.3k
07-20 18:01AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?BUY0.87$37.41
07-18 09:44Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?BUY0.977$195.37
07-06 17:22AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?BUY0.8898909915$408.18
07-01 20:59Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?BUY0.54$318.32
07-01 20:58Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?SELL0.5$343.83
07-01 20:55Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?SELL0.54$495.11
07-01 20:44Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?BUY0.58$63.80
07-01 20:37Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?BUY0.5729798195$579.49
07-01 20:36Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?BUY0.5699044105$596.20
07-01 14:08Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?BUY0.995$17.74
07-01 08:47Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?BUY0.9969716833$349.97
06-30 22:11Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?BUY0.94$40.42