Ternary
0xdcabd65b160955ca3979ce2be2e8476cb3594f1f
- Realised P&L
- $-654.94
- Volume
- $22.1k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $336.79
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.202 | 0.055 | $336.79 | −$901.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$433.34at 0.450US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$246.58at 0.800Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$225.43at 0.823Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?
- +$194.90at 0.253Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
- +$53.40at 0.737Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-03 23:44 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2021550844 | $1.2k |
| 03-03 23:44 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.2k |
| 02-28 19:21 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $991.29 |
| 01-27 12:37 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999998 | $354.55 |
| 10-27 20:55 | Maduro out in 2025? | BUY | 0.218287859 | $1000.00 |
| 09-22 17:45 | Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition | BUY | 0.82 | $180.40 |
| 09-22 17:42 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $100.00 |
| 09-22 17:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $498.00 |
| 09-22 17:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $1.1k |
| 09-22 17:23 | Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.544158315 | $300.00 |
| 09-04 11:49 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | BUY | 0.7374729259 | $150.00 |
| 09-04 09:24 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999993 | $100.00 |
| 09-04 09:17 | Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | BUY | 0.2532261983 | $200.00 |
| 09-04 09:15 | OpenAI browser by September 30? | BUY | 0.7455149818 | $100.00 |
| 09-04 09:06 | US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | BUY | 0.2399999967 | $50.00 |