PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

ToTheWindow

0xdf903ee52261f475ee5a02f9189acdb7cdba41f0

Realised P&L
$33.0k
Volume
$1.46M
Markets traded
271
Open portfolio
$594.59

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded271
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration23.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31? · No0.7030.805$168.55+$21.30
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes0.3300.200$151.52$98.48
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0670.138$103.12+$52.92
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0780.106$68.03+$18.03
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0130.011$64.11$13.51
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? · No0.8360.945$27.40+$3.15
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0070.009$11.87+$3.12
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? · Yes0.0290.000$0.00$137.49
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28? · Yes0.1190.000$0.00$25.00
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? · Yes0.0580.000$0.00$712.15
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? · Yes0.1270.000$0.00$143.78
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00$56.54
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? · Yes0.1250.000$0.00$721.09
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? · Yes0.0540.000$0.00$31.50
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0210.000$0.00$25.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 21:32US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.46$191.66
08-02 05:25Iran full airspace closure by August 31?SELL0.2290243694$321.04
08-01 05:03US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.1199999981$50.00
08-01 05:02Iran full airspace closure by August 15?SELL0.2921887624$206.86
07-31 23:01Israel closes its airspace by August 31?BUY0.3299999994$250.00
07-31 22:04Iran full airspace closure by August 31?BUY0.3795142214$500.00
07-31 22:03Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?SELL0.002$2.44
07-31 21:58Israel closes its airspace by August 15?SELL0.232553917$1.3k
07-31 12:57Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?SELL0.3986615369$522.25
07-31 12:57Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?SELL0.24$350.00
07-31 10:15Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?BUY0.2399999986$100.00
07-31 10:08Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?BUY0.2399999994$250.00
07-31 10:07Israel closes its airspace by August 15?BUY0.1299999995$200.00
07-31 10:06Israel closes its airspace by August 15?BUY0.1299999995$200.00
07-31 10:05Israel closes its airspace by August 15?BUY0.1299999996$250.00