0xDFCA4EE98374F62A1D4985aC9272260e09BA645a-1775178905321
0xdfca4ee98374f62a1d4985ac9272260e09ba645a
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $1.33M
- Markets traded
- 1,518
- Open portfolio
- $125.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,518
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration20.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$443.21at 0.207Will White House post 200+ posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?
- +$357.63at 0.579Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
- +$334.34at 0.434Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?
- +$238.22at 0.052Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
- +$234.66at 0.665Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 07:58 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.46 | $6.90 |
| 08-03 07:55 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 3? | SELL | 0.518 | $5.18 |
| 08-03 07:55 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 3? | SELL | 0.51 | $2.55 |
| 08-03 07:45 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.36 | $6.48 |
| 08-03 07:45 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.36 | $2.33 |
| 08-03 07:45 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.36 | $6.48 |
| 08-03 07:27 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 08-03 05:58 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on August 3? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.52 |
| 08-03 05:58 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 3? | SELL | 0.4 | $1.16 |
| 08-03 05:36 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.33 |
| 08-03 05:16 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.51 | $3.06 |
| 08-03 05:16 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 3? | BUY | 0.51 | $4.59 |
| 08-03 03:59 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 3? | SELL | 0.31 | $1.86 |
| 08-03 03:47 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on August 3? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.78 |
| 08-03 02:58 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 4? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.24 |