PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

lug

0xe0dbdb7f005f233f4510e4ef7e53a2f76a8df44e

Realised P&L
$94.2k
Volume
$22.43M
Markets traded
4,119
Open portfolio
$110.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,119
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7430.805$21.6k+$1.7k
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.8480.945$17.3k+$1.8k
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8120.855$12.8k+$650.40
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.8040.750$11.2k$804.91
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · No0.6540.695$9.6k+$559.82
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No0.9100.982$4.9k+$357.49
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? · No0.9200.925$4.6k+$25.00
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8500.875$4.4k+$125.00
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? · No0.8400.967$3.9k+$508.00
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No0.7100.655$3.3k$275.00
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0490.049$1.9k$20.00
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026? · No0.8940.966$1.9k+$138.19
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No0.7800.825$1.6k+$90.00
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.4110.390$1.6k$86.00
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.4900.475$1.4k$45.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-30 17:12Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?BUY0.9598171846$52.50
07-30 15:53Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026?SELL0.0341884817$1.63
07-30 15:52Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026?BUY0.89$44.50
07-30 15:51Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026?BUY0.8875252095$530.73
07-29 14:39Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.753$7.53
07-29 14:36Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 180.5BUY0.47$56.88
07-28 01:49Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?BUY0.69$3.3k
07-27 22:04Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?BUY0.9732788337$980.67
07-27 17:59Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?BUY0.73$2.0k
07-26 02:51Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?BUY0.59$56.05
07-26 00:35Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?BUY0.91$1.3k
07-25 16:40Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?BUY0.91$773.50
07-22 23:01Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5BUY0.52$87.88
07-22 23:01Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5BUY0.53$560.74
07-22 22:57Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?BUY0.87$1.9k