lug
0xe0dbdb7f005f233f4510e4ef7e53a2f76a8df44e
- Realised P&L
- $94.2k
- Volume
- $22.43M
- Markets traded
- 4,119
- Open portfolio
- $110.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,119
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$74.9kat 0.357Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$35.5kat 0.219Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$30.2kat 0.271Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$17.8kat 0.110Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5
- +$15.7kat 0.196Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 17:12 | Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026? | BUY | 0.9598171846 | $52.50 |
| 07-30 15:53 | Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026? | SELL | 0.0341884817 | $1.63 |
| 07-30 15:52 | Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $44.50 |
| 07-30 15:51 | Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026? | BUY | 0.8875252095 | $530.73 |
| 07-29 14:39 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.753 | $7.53 |
| 07-29 14:36 | Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 180.5 | BUY | 0.47 | $56.88 |
| 07-28 01:49 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.3k |
| 07-27 22:04 | Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? | BUY | 0.9732788337 | $980.67 |
| 07-27 17:59 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.73 | $2.0k |
| 07-26 02:51 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.59 | $56.05 |
| 07-26 00:35 | Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.3k |
| 07-25 16:40 | Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | BUY | 0.91 | $773.50 |
| 07-22 23:01 | Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5 | BUY | 0.52 | $87.88 |
| 07-22 23:01 | Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty: O/U 178.5 | BUY | 0.53 | $560.74 |
| 07-22 22:57 | Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $1.9k |