authortiew
0xe287f09976cd7f98072fd70d524264d1d9585a0f
- Realised P&L
- $6.0k
- Volume
- $133.1k
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $268.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.945 | $264.60 | +$18.20 |
| Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? · No | 0.200 | 1.000 | $3.43 | +$2.75 |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.016 | $0.86 | −$6.69 |
| Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? · No | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.10 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.17 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.047Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
- +$1.4kat 0.152U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7?
- +$1.3kat 0.072Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
- +$1.2kat 0.130Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8?
- +$701.99at 0.202Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-17 09:54 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $246.40 |
| 03-30 13:50 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |
| 03-30 13:50 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |
| 03-30 13:50 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |
| 03-30 13:49 | Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30? | SELL | 0.22 | $15.56 |
| 03-27 14:16 | Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? | SELL | 0.459 | $11.71 |
| 03-27 14:15 | Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? | SELL | 0.46 | $3.04 |
| 03-27 10:39 | Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? | SELL | 0.549 | $14.01 |
| 03-27 10:15 | Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? | SELL | 0.639 | $6.33 |
| 03-27 06:09 | Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? | SELL | 0.757 | $7.65 |
| 03-27 05:09 | Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $23.95 |
| 03-22 20:15 | Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? | SELL | 0.1746795455 | $3.07 |
| 03-19 14:13 | Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | SELL | 0.245 | $10.10 |
| 03-18 18:01 | Will two people dissent the March Fed decision? | BUY | 0.01 | $20.00 |
| 03-16 07:23 | Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $9.60 |