PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0xe38ae9d4647e03e864f11f20018b24f879f6f2c3

Realised P&L
$491.19
Volume
$11.9k
Markets traded
87
Open portfolio
$63.05

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar4.1%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded87
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes0.2930.304$15.56+$0.56
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes0.1200.135$11.25+$1.25
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.106$9.64$0.36
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes0.1800.175$8.75$0.25
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes0.1100.075$6.14$2.86
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? · Yes0.3100.090$5.23$12.77
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes0.0900.036$3.23$4.77
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.0380.021$2.76$2.24
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0100.005$0.50$0.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-27 04:06Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?BUY0.0147731683$1.16
07-26 05:54Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?BUY0.0229999809$1.16
07-25 10:29Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?BUY0.0210000003$2.00
07-24 14:36Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?SELL0.003$0.42
07-24 12:47Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?BUY0.0599999724$2.00
07-24 12:07Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?BUY0.0599999865$4.00
07-24 12:07Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?BUY0.01426961$2.00
07-24 12:07Israel closes its airspace by July 31?SELL0.36$12.00
07-19 12:13Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4089999938$14.65
07-19 11:41Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4089999984$81.99
07-12 01:10UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)BUY0.2799999783$7.23
07-12 01:10Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?SELL0.0920779856$7.53
07-11 20:38Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?BUY0.2174999922$17.20
07-11 20:37Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL0.07$18.06
07-10 19:42Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?BUY0.1349999889$9.53