PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

fi5h

0xe450d771caa532822ccd55d5b8ce09e188fe91b9

Realised P&L
$1.8k
Volume
$93.4k
Markets traded
2,016
Open portfolio
$1.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded2,016
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? · Yes0.5280.940$294.94+$129.28
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? · Yes0.1340.325$140.67+$82.66
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? · Yes0.5310.495$128.70$9.36
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? · Yes0.5990.991$79.24+$31.29
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? · Yes0.2100.305$48.80+$15.20
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? · No0.7800.870$43.50+$4.50
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No0.6420.665$39.90+$1.40
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? · No0.5590.705$33.95+$7.04
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026? · No0.7210.900$32.96+$6.56
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? · Yes0.0960.059$32.68$20.02
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No0.7800.882$30.87+$3.58
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No0.8990.922$27.65+$0.69
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? · Yes0.1050.043$22.97$33.66
Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No0.7640.875$21.84+$2.76
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.7200.726$21.76+$0.17

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 18:23US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?BUY0.5699998233$1.00
08-02 18:13Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?BUY0.8$1.00
08-02 18:12Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?BUY0.55$1.00
08-02 17:23Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?SELL0.384$7.68
08-02 16:41Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?BUY0.416$4.16
08-02 16:41Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?BUY0.3$3.00
08-02 15:06Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?SELL0.29$1.45
08-02 14:19Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?SELL0.36$7.20
08-02 14:17Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?BUY0.21$37.80
08-02 06:20IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?BUY0.68$4.76
08-02 05:49Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?BUY0.379$3.79
08-02 05:01Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?SELL0.999$2.08
08-02 04:56Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?SELL0.999$5.04
08-02 04:54Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?BUY0.8$24.00
08-02 04:52Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?BUY0.26$2.60