appadopa
0xe78e60e89716432ced943eaada55a31fa286ded3
- Realised P&L
- $-13.5k
- Volume
- $152.8k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $56.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration32.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.027 | $54.00 | −$6.00 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.001 | $2.24 | −$113.87 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? · No | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.7k |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? · No | 0.413 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.0k |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? · No | 0.434 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$759.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$536.65at 0.340Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
- +$523.85at 0.707Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
- +$369.34at 0.628Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
- +$238.43at 0.629US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$-7.61at 0.170Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 00:50 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.035 | $36.37 |
| 06-11 00:49 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.037 | $20.20 |
| 06-11 00:31 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.81 |
| 06-04 01:06 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.0450014737 | $481.88 |
| 06-01 12:23 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $252.00 |
| 06-01 12:21 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $374.57 |
| 06-01 12:19 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $374.99 |
| 04-08 08:16 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | SELL | 0.3650687276 | $265.59 |
| 04-08 08:14 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | SELL | 0.3660334483 | $95.53 |
| 04-08 08:14 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | SELL | 0.3678523985 | $99.69 |
| 04-08 08:08 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | SELL | 0.3670069565 | $1.6k |
| 04-08 08:07 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | SELL | 0.368 | $2.7k |
| 04-08 08:07 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | SELL | 0.3690913466 | $585.88 |
| 04-08 03:15 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.3471997753 | $1.2k |
| 04-08 03:14 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.3443019481 | $56.20 |