staflos
0xeb7acdfb1d4b0eaefa7a336a6b4ee6b47242c291
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $81.5k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $615.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.345 | $477.58 | −$62.10 |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.160 | $138.16 | −$81.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.421Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?
- +$925.05at 0.825Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
- +$511.65at 0.770Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$505.34at 0.775Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$360.67at 0.356Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 11:57 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.3781734084 | $215.03 |
| 07-25 20:26 | Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.29 | $21.00 |
| 07-25 20:22 | Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $0.16 |
| 07-25 20:21 | Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.27 | $90.72 |
| 07-25 20:20 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.39 | $34.71 |
| 07-25 20:18 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.4 | $8.40 |
| 07-25 05:44 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.41 | $146.96 |
| 07-25 05:41 | Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $72.00 |
| 07-25 05:40 | Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.23 | $21.50 |
| 07-25 05:40 | Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $9.94 |
| 07-22 14:33 | Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)? | BUY | 0.9766327141 | $200.00 |
| 07-22 14:33 | Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)? | BUY | 0.9675104657 | $82.28 |
| 07-22 14:32 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.4 | $422.15 |
| 07-19 15:43 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4099999988 | $200.00 |
| 07-18 16:39 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.39 | $179.89 |