EducatedGuess69420
0xed49defb36f77e74912c0ff38d2667317bad8783
- Realised P&L
- $-45.3k
- Volume
- $1.32M
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $40.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.6kat 0.546Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$3.3kat 0.768Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$1.6kat 0.560US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$1.2kat 0.599US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$1.2kat 0.661US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 07:02 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.6296259499 | $330.09 |
| 08-02 07:00 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.6209732575 | $300.00 |
| 08-02 06:59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $640.00 |
| 08-02 00:36 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.4899999559 | $4.00 |
| 07-31 06:26 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.5199999996 | $505.00 |
| 07-31 06:24 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.5851195912 | $500.00 |
| 07-31 06:24 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.5715357713 | $400.00 |
| 07-31 06:23 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.9500033327 | $1.4k |
| 07-31 06:13 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.5539997995 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 05:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.5199999815 | $9.00 |
| 07-29 21:12 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.7456512948 | $2.0k |
| 07-29 20:51 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.7422948622 | $3.0k |
| 07-29 20:47 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $1.5k |
| 07-29 20:47 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8999999998 | $3.0k |
| 07-29 20:46 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999999 | $1000.00 |