trandesiree
0xeedd8f76b78e37ee3d4c17b44aadb74c58e41bed
- Realised P&L
- $-22.62
- Volume
- $44.4k
- Markets traded
- 101
- Open portfolio
- $0.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded101
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $0.23 | −$0.70 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? · No | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.47 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.77 |
| Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.17 |
| Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.09 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.28at 0.009Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$0.21at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 24?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10?
- +$0.11at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?
- +$0.11at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 18:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.94 |
| 08-02 18:30 | Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $96.81 |
| 07-20 15:53 | Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.999 | $96.90 |
| 07-11 14:41 | Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.994 | $95.42 |
| 07-07 04:37 | Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.994 | $95.42 |
| 07-04 21:11 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.993 | $98.31 |
| 06-17 21:31 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.994 | $98.41 |
| 06-14 03:36 | Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.993 | $97.31 |
| 06-03 13:55 | Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.993 | $97.31 |
| 05-29 04:52 | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.91 |
| 03-09 19:23 | Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.77 |
| 03-09 19:23 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.82 |
| 03-09 19:22 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.989 | $92.97 |
| 03-08 09:54 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.99 | $93.06 |
| 03-08 09:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.79 |