carkiller530
0xef2f91f75d1878a09ecd42a376d084d3bc808b9c
- Realised P&L
- $11.8k
- Volume
- $210.6k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $41.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.2kat 0.828Will a Republican win Texas US Senate Election?
- +$5.1kat 0.826Will a Republican win Florida US Senate Election?
- +$2.0kat 0.568Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?
- +$1.6kat 0.830Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?
- +$1.4kat 0.836Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-19 22:58 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.14 | $39.13 |
| 03-28 14:50 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $2.9k |
| 03-28 14:50 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4683422238 | $300.00 |
| 03-28 14:49 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5594057991 | $500.00 |
| 03-14 02:32 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $500.00 |
| 03-10 14:59 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.634354876 | $800.00 |
| 03-05 03:18 | Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2285901222 | $129.87 |
| 03-05 03:17 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7456572918 | $100.00 |
| 03-05 03:17 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8279124701 | $100.00 |
| 03-05 01:34 | Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8035320102 | $200.00 |
| 03-05 01:33 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.87 | $528.85 |
| 03-04 17:04 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999998 | $264.30 |
| 03-04 17:03 | Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8333825918 | $200.00 |
| 03-04 17:02 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6260001839 | $1.2k |
| 02-27 19:37 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5945572043 | $1.9k |