kjsdavv
0xef8310e2a2c1ea0be7c009216c5fce70ee8a96ec
- Realised P&L
- $-81.3k
- Volume
- $2.29M
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $918.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.004 | $918.88 | −$879.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.8kat 0.910Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$17.7kat 0.184Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
- +$13.9kat 0.176Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
- +$8.8kat 0.882Maduro out in 2025?
- +$8.5kat 0.805US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 04:57 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8784488243 | $5.6k |
| 04-10 04:57 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.702721663 | $14.3k |
| 04-10 04:56 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9456566697 | $76.0k |
| 04-08 05:59 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9832028787 | $79.0k |
| 04-07 15:23 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | SELL | 0.7942783042 | $79.0k |
| 04-01 10:31 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.8334186464 | $82.9k |
| 03-23 03:07 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.8917001578 | $10.0k |
| 02-26 09:29 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $5.5k |
| 02-26 09:28 | US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $4.0k |
| 02-23 07:34 | US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999999 | $8.9k |
| 02-21 07:57 | US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9746904162 | $8.7k |
| 02-16 05:02 | US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.9644151741 | $8.3k |
| 02-10 07:44 | US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.9499999999 | $7.9k |
| 02-09 09:24 | US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $7.7k |
| 02-05 05:25 | US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.9534093562 | $7.4k |