tofutoddler1
0xf475a5c11fd319ceff08d991c6256467080ee2f9
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $83.6k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.009 | $722.84 | −$1.5k |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.146 | $556.70 | +$210.90 |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.40at 0.158Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$54.00at 0.460Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?
- +$39.60at 0.560Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?
- +$13.38at 0.554Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$7.80at 0.614US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 04:06 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.03 | $1.50 |
| 07-05 20:24 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.033 | $4.22 |
| 07-05 20:24 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.033 | $4.19 |
| 07-05 20:24 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.033 | $4.19 |
| 07-05 20:23 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.033 | $4.19 |
| 07-05 20:23 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.033 | $4.19 |
| 07-05 20:21 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.033 | $3.73 |
| 07-05 20:21 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.033 | $11.52 |
| 07-05 19:20 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0329989606 | $18.41 |
| 07-05 19:20 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0319977132 | $8.26 |
| 07-05 19:19 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0309862452 | $8.09 |
| 07-05 19:19 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.03 | $18.30 |
| 07-05 19:19 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.029 | $4.87 |
| 07-05 02:31 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.033 | $25.08 |
| 07-03 23:45 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.032 | $14.11 |