KaelenTaylor
0xf54e05b2b3a7c0144eceab4df4826a8bc7ad30f1
- Realised P&L
- $3.2k
- Volume
- $9.7k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $18.61
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar33.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.755 | $8.38 | +$0.61 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 15? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.565 | $5.69 | −$1.56 |
| Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.425 | $4.54 | −$3.79 |
| FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 · Under | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$584.00 |
| Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.542Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5
- +$1.6kat 0.490Spread: United States (-1.5)
- +$20.50at 0.540San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5
- +$2.50at 0.800Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$1.63at 0.860Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 08:02 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.77 |
| 08-01 08:02 | Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m? | BUY | 0.7799999925 | $8.33 |
| 08-01 08:01 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 15? | BUY | 0.7199999762 | $7.25 |
| 07-02 13:34 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5424999999 | $2.7k |
| 07-02 13:00 | Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.4399999997 | $584.00 |
| 07-01 22:31 | Spread: United States (-1.5) | BUY | 0.4899999999 | $1.5k |
| 06-07 12:32 | FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 06-07 12:32 | Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? | BUY | 0.2199999531 | $3.00 |
| 05-25 11:12 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.4899999982 | $60.00 |
| 05-15 05:42 | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $10.00 |
| 05-15 05:42 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 04-24 17:49 | Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $42.64 |
| 04-22 18:16 | San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 | BUY | 0.5399999906 | $23.41 |
| 03-23 07:43 | Meta "Mango" model released by March 31? | BUY | 0.9299997768 | $2.00 |
| 03-23 07:42 | Will Amazon (AMZN) close at <$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | BUY | 0.9879999974 | $3.00 |