0xf868f3ce7cfffc096b77cc0cdd6141cbaf73e2d0
- Realised P&L
- $-41.80
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $42.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.392 | 0.365 | $24.82 | −$1.86 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.355 | $9.46 | +$1.47 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.035 | $4.13 | −$2.87 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · No | 0.550 | 0.535 | $1.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · No | 0.620 | 0.635 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.465 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.59at 0.210Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 4?
- +$14.18at 0.220Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28?
- +$13.72at 0.127Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6?
- +$11.16at 0.089Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 16?
- +$9.44at 0.820Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 07:26 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $0.00 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $0.02 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | SELL | 0.29 | $0.97 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 07:26 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 06-29 19:07 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |
| 06-29 19:07 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.00 |