0xf86c59be1647c84ceb1d14aedd6e77f1e1740f22
- Realised P&L
- $-28.47
- Volume
- $28.7k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? · No | 0.994 | 0.988 | $1.2k | −$7.50 |
| Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.013 | $47.25 | −$1.75 |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.60at 0.996World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
- +$2.00at 0.015Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.40at 0.999Will Qatar reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$1.20at 0.999Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.10at 0.999Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 19:08 | Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $33.97 |
| 07-13 21:22 | World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.2k |
| 07-04 17:34 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.2k |
| 06-29 09:57 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.1k |
| 06-22 21:23 | Will Qatar reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.9988333333 | $1.2k |
| 06-16 18:26 | Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.9986 | $249.65 |
| 06-16 18:25 | Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $199.60 |
| 06-16 18:25 | Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $142.40 |
| 06-16 18:24 | Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9975067578 | $197.06 |
| 06-16 18:24 | Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $169.83 |
| 06-16 18:22 | Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $255.74 |
| 06-12 17:12 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.999 | $599.40 |
| 06-10 00:12 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.011 | $44.00 |
| 06-10 00:11 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.016 | $32.00 |
| 06-09 18:09 | Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $499.50 |