extractive-manatee
0xf9f207b77137caa79c6c4516abdef3133db45cba
- Realised P&L
- $63.4k
- Volume
- $17.64M
- Markets traded
- 2,984
- Open portfolio
- $39.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,984
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.2kat 0.053Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$4.3kat 0.105Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
- +$3.7kat 0.007Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
- +$3.3kat 0.434Will Coursera (COUR) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$3.1kat 0.101Will American Express (AXP) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:50 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.65 | $143.90 |
| 08-02 21:49 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4090992305 | $877.77 |
| 08-02 21:29 | Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30? | SELL | 0.66 | $99.00 |
| 08-02 21:29 | Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.6058284495 | $482.75 |
| 08-02 21:15 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.47 | $12.79 |
| 08-02 20:17 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 08-02 20:00 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.68 | $11.36 |
| 08-02 19:23 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 08-02 08:09 | Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Resilience (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs | BUY | 0.43 | $430.00 |
| 08-02 01:20 | Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $486,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.42 |
| 08-02 01:06 | Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.5904950656 | $1.5k |
| 08-01 22:02 | Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.768 | $468.98 |
| 08-01 21:58 | Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | SELL | 0.3007162958 | $103.65 |
| 08-01 21:36 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4842219388 | $379.63 |
| 08-01 21:23 | Will Marex Group (MRX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.72 | $72.00 |