MuchAdo2BRN2B
0xfad4fb17d54b6d600d6cc912d433e73c252ca210
- Realised P&L
- $-7.6k
- Volume
- $1.18M
- Markets traded
- 869
- Open portfolio
- $759.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded869
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.620Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?
- +$2.7kat 0.417Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and AZ?
- +$2.1kat 0.227Trump wins every swing state?
- +$1.8kat 0.454Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
- +$1.8kat 0.532Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 06:39 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.56 | $56.00 |
| 07-12 06:21 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $11.09 |
| 07-12 06:12 | Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 07-12 06:12 | Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.069 | $1.38 |
| 07-03 19:07 | Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.87 |
| 07-03 19:07 | Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.056 | $1.59 |
| 05-27 07:11 | Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $15.81 |
| 05-27 07:00 | Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $25.99 |
| 04-22 19:22 | Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $105.40 |
| 04-22 19:16 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 04-22 19:15 | Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? | BUY | 0.05 | $32.75 |
| 04-22 19:12 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $46.00 |
| 04-22 19:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL | 0.993 | $129.09 |
| 04-22 18:53 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.967 | $38.68 |
| 04-08 07:05 | Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY | 0.67 | $6.70 |