PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

xiaopuman

0xfbe2f1f7066a035dacaf1cf625135427ff776f8d

Realised P&L
$86.24
Volume
$107.2k
Markets traded
116
Open portfolio
$268.68

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded116
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1480.118$83.97$21.02
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · Yes0.2740.295$48.95+$3.57
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes0.0780.065$46.80$9.60
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2800.290$43.50+$1.47
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes0.0700.078$27.60+$2.83
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · Yes0.0770.085$17.85+$1.73
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? · Yes0.6570.000$0.00$18.25
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? · Yes0.5390.000$0.00$17.33
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? · Yes0.0220.000$0.00$5.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? · Yes0.1050.000$0.00$9.50
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$5.00
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$5.00
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.0570.000$0.00$1.61
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Yes0.2350.000$0.00$36.31
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.1080.000$0.00$0.11

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-29 06:36Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?SELL0.09$11.19
07-26 22:40China x Japan military clash before 2027?BUY0.08$32.00
07-26 22:31Xi Jinping out before 2027?SELL0.047$9.40
07-21 07:22Xi Jinping out before 2027?BUY0.05$19.46
07-17 15:49Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsBUY0.8899999947$10.00
07-13 16:00Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?BUY0.91$45.50
07-12 11:08Dota 2: MOUZ vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.3699998631$1.00
07-12 10:46Dota 2: MOUZ vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.1399998824$1.00
07-12 09:30Dota 2: MOUZ vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBUY0.599999976$5.00
07-11 13:54Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerSELL0.999$22.95
07-11 13:12Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerBUY0.92$20.00
07-11 12:54Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerBUY0.8099999757$1.00
07-11 12:04Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerSELL0.999$8.49
07-11 09:52Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerBUY0.88$7.48
07-10 14:29Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerBUY0.2299998275$1.00