xiaopuman
0xfbe2f1f7066a035dacaf1cf625135427ff776f8d
- Realised P&L
- $86.24
- Volume
- $107.2k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $268.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$101.24at 0.260Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$63.58at 0.190MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$38.29at 0.533Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
- +$35.52at 0.090US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$26.60at 0.737Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 06:36 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $11.19 |
| 07-26 22:40 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $32.00 |
| 07-26 22:31 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.047 | $9.40 |
| 07-21 07:22 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $19.46 |
| 07-17 15:49 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $10.00 |
| 07-13 16:00 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $45.50 |
| 07-12 11:08 | Dota 2: MOUZ vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 10:46 | Dota 2: MOUZ vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 09:30 | Dota 2: MOUZ vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.599999976 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 13:54 | Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner | SELL | 0.999 | $22.95 |
| 07-11 13:12 | Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.92 | $20.00 |
| 07-11 12:54 | Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.8099999757 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 12:04 | Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner | SELL | 0.999 | $8.49 |
| 07-11 09:52 | Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.88 | $7.48 |
| 07-10 14:29 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |