MPIL
0xfc081d2dab43d97ee05b624e2166808ad3e96be7
- Realised P&L
- $-21.8k
- Volume
- $724.5k
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $3.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.6kat 0.273Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$2.2kat 0.710Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?
- +$1.7kat 0.454Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?
- +$1.1kat 0.189Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
- +$1.0kat 0.565Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-09 12:31 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $15.20 |
| 06-02 08:16 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.993 | $993.00 |
| 04-28 09:54 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.039 | $390.00 |
| 04-28 09:49 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.013 | $29.10 |
| 04-28 09:22 | SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.0572490725 | $133.01 |
| 04-17 13:32 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? | BUY | 0.0298218961 | $344.72 |
| 04-08 13:11 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? | BUY | 0.91 | $116.54 |
| 04-08 13:07 | Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? | SELL | 0.87 | $117.45 |
| 04-08 13:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? | BUY | 0.89 | $212.60 |
| 04-08 13:02 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? | BUY | 0.88 | $478.12 |
| 04-08 12:28 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.185 | $608.41 |
| 04-07 13:20 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? | BUY | 0.029 | $24.07 |
| 04-07 13:19 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | BUY | 0.47 | $144.89 |
| 04-07 13:18 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | BUY | 0.2 | $460.77 |
| 04-07 09:45 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | BUY | 0.31 | $948.30 |