0xFc9DCC478c40bC61A3261978bc9f8C6BCC3F9d68-1767537044643
0xfc9dcc478c40bc61a3261978bc9f8c6bcc3f9d68
- Realised P&L
- $8.0k
- Volume
- $255.7k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $11.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.085 | $10.5k | −$3.3k |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.113 | 0.065 | $517.10 | −$380.89 |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay · Yes | 0.139 | 0.095 | $294.27 | −$135.72 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$887.68 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$757.43 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$199.99 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$136.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.5kat 0.064Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$-327.09at 0.035Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 12:56 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | BUY | 0.1393359019 | $420.00 |
| 07-24 12:49 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $410.44 |
| 07-24 12:42 | Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | BUY | 0.1199999899 | $10.00 |
| 07-05 15:44 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.127209554 | $737.00 |
| 07-05 15:43 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1086419535 | $4.00 |
| 07-05 15:43 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $736.83 |
| 07-02 11:36 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0738823529 | $157.00 |
| 06-26 14:46 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $110.00 |
| 05-25 19:24 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0201088497 | $111.00 |
| 05-25 19:22 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $111.07 |
| 05-25 19:16 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0164913096 | $26.00 |
| 05-09 17:44 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1153335079 | $8.7k |
| 05-09 17:44 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1077159598 | $6.8k |
| 05-09 17:40 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $15.5k |
| 04-15 10:58 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0635177947 | $987.51 |