PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0x03141505C79F7D82eA4d426105Cb228B4eD92F6d-1766507216051

0x03141505c79f7d82ea4d426105cb228b4ed92f6d

Realised P&L
$569.51
Volume
$43.9k
Markets traded
292
Open portfolio
$989.28

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded292
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration11.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration35.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes0.5740.565$344.23$5.65
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.5840.675$277.76+$37.34
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · No0.3760.315$73.08$14.04
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes0.2020.190$52.25$3.20
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No0.5450.395$36.03$13.71
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.1230.115$16.44$1.19
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes0.2770.200$15.72$6.02
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? · Yes0.6900.650$14.80$0.92
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No0.3890.215$13.76$11.13
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.7060.850$13.59+$2.31
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · No0.7090.670$10.72$0.63
Spain snap election called in 2026? · Yes0.2330.225$9.07$0.31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2270.225$9.00$0.10
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.1680.160$6.64$0.32
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.1640.155$6.61$0.36

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 00:53US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.45$9.90
08-03 00:52US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.45$9.90
08-03 00:48Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?BUY0.33$23.10
08-03 00:46Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?BUY0.33$23.10
08-01 01:08No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?SELL0.68$9.52
08-01 01:07No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?SELL0.68$12.92
07-31 06:59Spain snap election called in 2026?BUY0.27$2.77
07-31 06:57No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?BUY0.25$8.25
07-30 18:47Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?SELL0.037$0.41
07-30 18:45Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?BUY0.23$1.15
07-30 02:32Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?SELL0.06$0.84
07-30 00:03US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.78$8.58
07-29 21:34Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?BUY0.22$2.42
07-29 21:34Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?BUY0.22$1.10
07-29 21:16US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?SELL0.58$5.22