0x26201e9fFacf2929e8C597635f81e9E126F378f5-1734108582669
0x26201e9ffacf2929e8c597635f81e9e126f378f5
- Realised P&L
- $-285.77
- Volume
- $14.5k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $419.89
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · Yes | 0.103 | 0.085 | $362.69 | −$79.35 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.065 | $57.20 | −$13.20 |
| Will Biden finish his term? · No | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$90.00 |
| Lula out before April? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$196.78at 0.240Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 13:39 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $70.40 |
| 07-25 11:22 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $14.05 |
| 07-04 03:42 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999907 | $8.00 |
| 06-05 20:33 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0126294906 | $50.00 |
| 06-04 16:50 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0191341931 | $50.00 |
| 05-28 06:13 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.1467744839 | $150.00 |
| 02-13 16:44 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999977 | $62.14 |
| 12-21 08:53 | Lula out before April? | BUY | 0.1898101884 | $100.00 |
| 12-13 19:54 | Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? | BUY | 0.4904908538 | $100.00 |
| 12-13 19:14 | Will Biden finish his term? | BUY | 0.05 | $90.00 |