scout
0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3
- Realised P&L
- $244.9k
- Volume
- $49.56M
- Markets traded
- 911
- Open portfolio
- $356.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded911
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? · Yes | 0.996 | 1.000 | $160.6k | +$529.89 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.829 | 0.795 | $103.3k | −$4.4k |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? · No | 0.992 | 1.000 | $20.0k | +$157.74 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.994 | 0.998 | $19.7k | +$75.89 |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31? · No | 0.996 | 1.000 | $17.3k | +$56.50 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.512 | 0.540 | $10.8k | +$567.85 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? · Yes | 0.998 | 1.000 | $10.0k | +$15.00 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.725 | $7.3k | +$250.00 |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.941 | 0.964 | $3.2k | +$77.08 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.957 | 1.000 | $3.0k | +$126.51 |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.915 | $914.99 | +$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.8kat 0.200Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$29.2kat 0.871US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$21.0kat 0.980Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
- +$14.5kat 0.989Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$13.1kat 0.982Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 19:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.996 | $8.1k |
| 08-02 18:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.996 | $5.5k |
| 08-02 05:05 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.0k |
| 08-02 04:46 | Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9566369577 | $52.70 |
| 07-31 22:02 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.3k |
| 07-31 21:14 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.9953195192 | $425.58 |
| 07-31 20:52 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.9949743994 | $17.3k |
| 07-31 19:31 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.990227256 | $9.9k |
| 07-31 18:57 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.0k |
| 07-31 18:46 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.4k |
| 07-31 16:55 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.9956666667 | $298.70 |
| 07-31 16:50 | Netanyahu out by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $38.6k |
| 07-31 16:40 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.5k |
| 07-31 16:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.6k |
| 07-31 16:33 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $40.2k |