PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Miguel262144

0x2df5ad0f2612c7bcf5f87543e126e0aa351051ac

Realised P&L
$2.1k
Volume
$227.7k
Markets traded
8,426
Open portfolio
$1.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded8,426
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration7.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration10.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.4340.075$147.25$704.89
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.5750.600$120.00+$5.00
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.5380.460$98.20$16.80
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2390.247$70.25+$2.33
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.8500.885$58.41+$2.31
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.4880.165$57.05$111.74
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No0.5800.555$55.50$2.50
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No0.6110.320$52.80$48.07
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31? · Yes0.4701.000$43.98+$23.30
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · No0.7400.780$42.90+$2.20
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? · No0.5100.817$40.84+$15.35
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes0.5500.720$39.60+$9.35
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.4070.188$37.80$44.20
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? · No0.7400.780$25.74+$1.32
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2100.230$23.00+$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 23:36Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersSELL0.42$23.10
08-02 23:35Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersBUY0.43$9.46
08-02 22:18San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksBUY0.49$5.39
08-02 22:17Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesBUY0.6$19.80
08-02 22:17Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosBUY0.55$12.10
08-02 22:17San Francisco Giants vs. Texas RangersBUY0.52$11.44
08-02 22:17Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago CubsBUY0.55$18.15
08-02 22:17Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersBUY0.57$18.81
08-02 22:17St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York YankeesBUY0.64$21.12
08-02 22:16Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesBUY0.59$19.47
08-02 22:16Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles DodgersBUY0.62$13.64
08-02 16:47US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?BUY0.181$5.97
08-02 16:47US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?BUY0.56$11.38
08-02 12:59Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.34$7.48
08-02 12:59Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.34$11.22