ascj2413
0x3b5a8d269c3570876d932f1cdf6047ae503c5651
- Realised P&L
- $2.43
- Volume
- $420.83
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $12.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No | 0.995 | 0.996 | $4.98 | +$0.01 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.675 | $3.38 | +$2.42 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.545 | $2.73 | −$0.38 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.235 | $1.17 | +$0.57 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.021 | $0.11 | −$0.18 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET · Up | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.18at 0.850Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?
- +$0.09at 0.920Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$0.09at 0.920Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$0.02at 0.979Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?
- +$0.02at 0.983Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-28 03:18 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $3.10 |
| 05-28 03:18 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $4.97 |
| 02-07 12:01 | Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.012 | $1.40 |
| 02-07 11:57 | Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.0129999917 | $1.52 |
| 02-07 11:46 | Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.021 | $1.52 |
| 02-07 11:46 | Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.0220000001 | $1.59 |
| 02-07 11:42 | Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | SELL | 0.98 | $0.99 |
| 02-07 11:37 | Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.00 |
| 02-07 11:37 | Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? | BUY | 0.849999915 | $1.00 |
| 02-07 11:36 | Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.00 |
| 02-07 11:35 | Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.00 |
| 02-07 11:35 | Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.00 |
| 02-07 11:35 | Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | BUY | 0.919993928 | $1.00 |
| 02-07 11:35 | Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | BUY | 0.919999448 | $1.00 |
| 02-07 11:34 | Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | BUY | 0.9789999883 | $1.00 |