musa77
0x3dda0231151cae91a9f3561f947b6fa007218799
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $240.6k
- Markets traded
- 278
- Open portfolio
- $12.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded278
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.560Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
- +$1.5kat 0.103Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.1kat 0.189Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$849.40at 0.799Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
- +$590.99at 0.682Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 19:35 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.61 | $3.9k |
| 07-19 19:33 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.58767166 | $1.8k |
| 07-19 19:33 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.4010718664 | $2.0k |
| 07-11 22:53 | Will Norway vs. England end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7399999963 | $150.00 |
| 07-11 22:51 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.374648358 | $143.51 |
| 07-06 02:05 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.61 | $2.0k |
| 07-05 12:15 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.770905826 | $1.9k |
| 07-03 22:26 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $3.00 |
| 07-03 21:41 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6194699333 | $1.9k |
| 07-03 21:23 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.7772188572 | $1.8k |
| 07-03 00:56 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.61 | $18.30 |
| 07-02 00:30 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.065 | $535.60 |
| 07-01 23:35 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.358 | $358.00 |
| 07-01 23:35 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.182 | $182.00 |
| 07-01 23:33 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.03 | $90.00 |