PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0x40eb64E03E1Ba81E1e690e768e3E48CE91F53F31-1769469649828

0x40eb64e03e1ba81e1e690e768e3e48ce91f53f31

Realised P&L
$-11.8k
Volume
$367.0k
Markets traded
363
Open portfolio
$526.89

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded363
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration60.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.1830.195$319.35+$19.36
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.0740.040$80.07$69.93
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? · Yes0.3170.425$67.04+$17.04
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.1560.278$35.67+$15.67
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0950.035$22.36$37.64
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0460.021$2.33$2.67
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET · Down0.1760.000$0.00$5.97
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET · Up0.4290.000$0.00$59.19
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET · Up0.2830.000$0.00$9.90
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET · Down0.4250.000$0.00$9.85
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET · Up0.1170.000$0.00$1.17
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET · Up0.1510.000$0.00$5.97
Spread: France (-3.5) · France0.3700.000$0.00$100.00
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.0130.000$0.00$5.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET · Up0.3300.000$0.00$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-27 19:58Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0569999987$40.00
06-27 19:57Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.04$70.00
06-27 19:54Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?BUY0.1699999967$35.00
06-22 20:45Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ETBUY0.3901316207$100.00
06-22 20:43Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ETBUY0.3399999946$25.00
06-22 20:43Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ETSELL0.57$116.13
06-22 20:40Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ETBUY0.4908322355$100.00
06-22 20:20Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ETBUY0.6099999988$25.00
06-22 20:17Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ETBUY0.149999976$5.00
06-22 20:17Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ETSELL0.82$48.81
06-22 20:15Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ETBUY0.419999994$25.00
06-22 20:14Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ETBUY0.4$25.00
06-22 20:13Spread: France (-3.5)BUY0.369999998$100.00
06-16 13:58Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ETSELL0.26$7.65
06-16 13:56Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ETBUY0.1699999759$5.00