Warren-Buffett
0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4
- Realised P&L
- $197.6k
- Volume
- $26.03M
- Markets traded
- 1,467
- Open portfolio
- $154.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,467
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$124.6kat 0.360US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$20.8kat 0.002US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
- +$18.4kat 0.645Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$10.2kat 0.908US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$9.6kat 0.185US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:46 | Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4830645842 | $91.55 |
| 08-02 22:45 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.2k |
| 08-02 22:42 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | BUY | 0.306744186 | $52.76 |
| 08-02 21:48 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0966681252 | $110.91 |
| 08-02 21:42 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.4415996514 | $3.1k |
| 08-02 21:37 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.34 | $340.00 |
| 08-02 21:33 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | SELL | 0.8425643469 | $999.08 |
| 08-02 21:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.65 | $975.00 |
| 08-02 21:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.44884985 | $897.70 |
| 08-02 21:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.1862029134 | $371.72 |
| 08-02 21:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | SELL | 0.984 | $2.0k |
| 08-02 21:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | SELL | 0.984673616 | $4.9k |
| 08-02 21:30 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $539.99 |
| 08-02 21:27 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.7k |
| 08-02 21:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.6k |