PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

RisottoPasta

0x49f206f4fb2210a28af4795e4e0b6532cf0bd7b4

Realised P&L
$-42.3k
Volume
$7.56M
Markets traded
1,098
Open portfolio
$10.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,098
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration10.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0310.247$1.1k+$973.13
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? · No0.8600.860$953.90$0.15
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? · Yes0.2800.270$811.35$30.10
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.8090.845$804.00+$34.46
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8300.875$644.08+$32.87
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.7280.595$513.11$114.59
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? · Yes0.7000.665$483.94$25.47
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds · St. Louis Cardinals0.4400.420$420.72$19.95
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? · No0.7290.705$359.55$12.20
Will Paul Skenes strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? · No0.9150.897$339.25$6.62
Will Ben Rice win the 2026 American League MVP Award? · No0.9300.971$331.91+$13.86
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.5900.555$277.50$17.50
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.9000.940$207.43+$8.83
Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027? · No0.9130.983$201.51+$14.30
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No0.2150.405$192.83+$90.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 00:00Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.36$1.85
07-31 04:48Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027?BUY0.979$4.89
07-29 18:01Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?SELL0.33$21.78
07-29 17:06Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference?BUY0.32$405.30
07-19 19:16Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceBUY0.4025$235.25
07-19 10:50Spread: Spain (-1.5)SELL0.7925$0.03
07-19 10:47Spread: Spain (-1.5)SELL0.795$3.8k
07-18 13:32LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsSELL0.8209789371$779.94
07-18 12:56LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsBUY0.74$2.4k
07-18 07:09Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.071$143.76
07-15 21:51LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group CSELL0.43$7.00
07-15 13:23Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?SELL0.01$0.10
07-15 13:23Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?SELL0.008$0.80
07-15 13:23Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?SELL0.01$0.05
07-15 13:22Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?SELL0.01$0.10