RisottoPasta
0x49f206f4fb2210a28af4795e4e0b6532cf0bd7b4
- Realised P&L
- $-42.3k
- Volume
- $7.56M
- Markets traded
- 1,098
- Open portfolio
- $10.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,098
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.4kat 0.160Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?
- +$19.0kat 0.360Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?
- +$11.9kat 0.325Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$8.7kat 0.600Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?
- +$7.9kat 0.430Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 00:00 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.85 |
| 07-31 04:48 | Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.979 | $4.89 |
| 07-29 18:01 | Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference? | SELL | 0.33 | $21.78 |
| 07-29 17:06 | Will Warsh say "Spending" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.32 | $405.30 |
| 07-19 19:16 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4025 | $235.25 |
| 07-19 10:50 | Spread: Spain (-1.5) | SELL | 0.7925 | $0.03 |
| 07-19 10:47 | Spread: Spain (-1.5) | SELL | 0.795 | $3.8k |
| 07-18 13:32 | LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | SELL | 0.8209789371 | $779.94 |
| 07-18 12:56 | LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.74 | $2.4k |
| 07-18 07:09 | Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.071 | $143.76 |
| 07-15 21:51 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C | SELL | 0.43 | $7.00 |
| 07-15 13:23 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.10 |
| 07-15 13:23 | Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.80 |
| 07-15 13:23 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 07-15 13:22 | Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.10 |