chessplayer
0x4b8ae011176b76888949476d7fb7a56985faf4a4
- Realised P&L
- $-15.6k
- Volume
- $5.77M
- Markets traded
- 6,894
- Open portfolio
- $10.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,894
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration27.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.158Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$2.0kat 0.020Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?
- +$1.7kat 0.550Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
- +$1.6kat 0.205US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.906Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 12:36 | Will BILIBILI GAMING Make the LPL 2026 Split 3 Grand Final? | SELL | 0.31 | $10.85 |
| 08-02 11:25 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.05 |
| 08-02 10:06 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7409082541 | $48.29 |
| 08-02 05:45 | Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $43.60 |
| 08-02 01:57 | Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $103.50 |
| 08-02 01:30 | Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $66.39 |
| 08-02 01:05 | Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026? | BUY | 0.5214760148 | $141.32 |
| 08-02 01:04 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7466191677 | $59.21 |
| 08-02 00:46 | Will "Beef" win 8 or 9 awards at the Emmys? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 00:46 | Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? | SELL | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 08-02 00:46 | Will "Hacks" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? | SELL | 0.35 | $17.50 |
| 08-02 00:44 | Will "Pluribus" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? | SELL | 0.84 | $16.80 |
| 08-02 00:44 | Will "Pluribus" win 8 or 9 awards at the Emmys? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 08-02 00:43 | Will "Pluribus" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 08-02 00:42 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 25, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $56.21 |