GCNO1
0x5011224f4848cb2cf2d87cf2b823551dfd0e220e
- Realised P&L
- $-39.6k
- Volume
- $8.34M
- Markets traded
- 1,561
- Open portfolio
- $36.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,561
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration33.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.5kat 0.821Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?
- +$6.6kat 0.989MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$6.6kat 0.815Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
- +$6.1kat 0.928Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
- +$5.7kat 0.865Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 17:58 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.9449549955 | $2.1k |
| 08-01 12:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | SELL | 0.064 | $17.60 |
| 08-01 12:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | SELL | 0.0696 | $8.70 |
| 08-01 06:57 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | SELL | 0.07 | $10.50 |
| 08-01 06:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.93 | $721.86 |
| 08-01 04:15 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $751.92 |
| 08-01 03:13 | Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.60 |
| 07-29 17:49 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.79 | $410.27 |
| 07-27 16:30 | Will Patricia Mair win the next Salzgitter mayoral election? | SELL | 0.02 | $2.00 |
| 07-27 16:30 | Will Ruslan Titov win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections? | SELL | 0.0344395604 | $3.13 |
| 07-26 14:19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.828 | $3.3k |
| 07-26 02:33 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.14 |
| 07-22 17:51 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.15 |
| 07-21 17:13 | Iran full airspace closure by July 21? | SELL | 0.0088093874 | $4.89 |
| 07-20 16:57 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.0k |