lostinleningrad
0x51ad8bfc74c6cf18df67e637f9ecfc757ce205be
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $120.3k
- Markets traded
- 159
- Open portfolio
- $2.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded159
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$202.22at 0.090Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?
- +$112.86at 0.210UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
- +$102.59at 0.835US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$99.60at 0.900US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
- +$97.20at 0.923Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 04:19 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.9061357729 | $200.00 |
| 08-02 04:18 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.8727473104 | $300.00 |
| 08-02 04:18 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.7229999995 | $400.00 |
| 08-02 04:16 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.5699999977 | $80.00 |
| 08-02 04:15 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? | BUY | 0.8899999946 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 04:15 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.6650124039 | $50.00 |
| 07-22 15:20 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | SELL | 0.3403034533 | $224.29 |
| 07-22 15:20 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | SELL | 0.3278574 | $327.86 |
| 07-19 13:17 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.7 | $189.19 |
| 07-19 13:17 | Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.976 | $616.65 |
| 07-17 19:37 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | BUY | 0.6099999961 | $50.00 |
| 07-17 19:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? | BUY | 0.7058235402 | $40.00 |
| 07-17 19:36 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.6887423475 | $50.00 |
| 07-17 19:34 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7399999998 | $200.00 |
| 07-17 19:33 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4099999959 | $30.00 |