PolyEGG
0x60a82a9abb8fed5a860bbd7bf74941316c7d7d37
- Realised P&L
- $-976.15
- Volume
- $400.2k
- Markets traded
- 1,360
- Open portfolio
- $8.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,360
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$425.05at 0.942US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
- +$273.73at 0.439Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?
- +$248.29at 0.772Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
- +$209.45at 0.208MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$145.32at 0.749US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 08:22 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.77 | $8.42 |
| 08-03 07:47 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.695 | $9.65 |
| 08-03 07:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.4 | $6.39 |
| 08-03 07:05 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.66 | $9.70 |
| 08-03 07:02 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | SELL | 0.997 | $39.49 |
| 08-03 07:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.24 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 07:00 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.01 | $0.29 |
| 08-03 06:54 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.67 | $9.86 |
| 08-03 06:22 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.71 | $9.73 |
| 08-03 06:13 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.69 | $9.86 |
| 08-03 06:08 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $19.86 |
| 08-03 06:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 05:06 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $10.61 |
| 08-03 05:05 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 05:05 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.17 | $9.45 |