pop
0x6404bfa37fe830e29ee8967e1c3b2a8091d5f250
- Realised P&L
- $36.3k
- Volume
- $1.29M
- Markets traded
- 204
- Open portfolio
- $64.8k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded204
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.1kat 0.141Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by September 1, 2022?
- +$9.3kat 0.111Will the Fed set interest rates above 2.50% (100 bps or more) after their scheduled July meeting?
- +$9.3kat 0.728Will Biden finish his term?
- +$8.6kat 0.055Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?
- +$7.4kat 0.634Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 08:00 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.048 | $180.24 |
| 08-02 08:00 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.028 | $151.24 |
| 08-02 02:29 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.65 | $846.45 |
| 08-02 02:28 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.6180796642 | $394.60 |
| 08-02 01:47 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.029 | $0.50 |
| 08-02 01:47 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0289585552 | $74.46 |
| 08-02 01:37 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.65 | $780.00 |
| 07-29 21:25 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $105.07 |
| 07-28 22:24 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $24.57 |
| 07-28 16:58 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.69 | $187.14 |
| 07-28 04:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.5163881944 | $315.20 |
| 07-27 23:12 | The Memphis Classic: Talia Gibson vs Tatjana Maria | BUY | 0.74 | $192.40 |
| 07-27 22:34 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.5128869416 | $262.80 |
| 07-27 22:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $69.03 |
| 07-27 22:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.72 | $427.26 |