PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

groppone

0x77500a1651826ef61b2dde9d666851f13179324d

Realised P&L
$876.20
Volume
$254.0k
Markets traded
298
Open portfolio
$294.24

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded298
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3500.345$34.49$0.51
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes0.2500.310$31.00+$6.00
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes0.2000.195$29.25$0.75
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.5300.445$26.70$5.10
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1380.065$26.65$29.95
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · Yes0.0710.066$23.40$1.97
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes0.1400.095$19.00$9.00
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes0.1000.065$13.00$7.00
Ebola pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0700.033$13.00$15.00
New pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.1000.065$13.00$7.00
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? · Yes0.1000.055$11.00$9.00
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0850.035$10.62$14.88
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.4000.195$9.75$10.25
US recession by end of 2026? · Yes0.2600.095$9.50$16.50
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? · Yes0.1700.085$7.08$7.08

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-22 19:11Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY0.002$1.00
07-22 19:07Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?SELL0.029$0.01
07-20 16:01China x Philippines military clash before 2027?BUY0.01$2.00
07-20 15:55Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY0.007$3.50
07-16 13:45Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?BUY0.18$1.80
07-07 15:56Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?SELL0.83$41.50
07-07 07:05Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY0.79$39.50
07-03 12:19Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL0.079$31.60
07-03 12:17Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.08$16.00
07-02 06:51Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?SELL0.018$1.71
06-30 05:49Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.277$13.85
06-29 08:57US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?BUY0.001$1.00
06-21 15:11Starmer out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0168549985$16.85
06-15 10:17 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?SELL0.45$45.00
06-14 14:59Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?SELL0.002$0.20