PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

surplusH

0x7a298d83b639a369a1538d5d3eca914315100db8

Realised P&L
$-468.89
Volume
$37.4k
Markets traded
150
Open portfolio
$325.26

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded150
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.1330.065$53.43$55.64
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? · Yes0.9931.000$40.00+$0.28
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.8700.962$33.47+$3.19
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.8500.935$32.73+$2.98
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? · No0.9400.969$29.07+$0.87
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.8700.961$28.33+$2.67
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · No0.9771.000$27.00+$0.62
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? · No0.9841.000$22.00+$0.35
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.7600.792$19.81+$0.81
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.9640.979$12.72+$0.19
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8001.000$12.00+$2.40
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? · No0.9501.000$11.00+$0.55
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? · No0.7100.185$3.70$10.50
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes0.0230.000$0.00$1.15
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.0230.000$0.00$2.30

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-05 08:58Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY0.977$26.38
06-04 08:50Will the People Power Party win 4 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?BUY0.999$37.96
06-04 08:50Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by less than 5%?BUY0.998$26.95
06-04 08:49Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by less than 5%?BUY0.998$26.95
06-04 08:49Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8$9.60
05-20 06:40Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?SELL0.001$0.66
05-20 06:38Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?BUY0.95$10.45
05-20 06:37Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?BUY0.984$21.65
03-15 03:28Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?BUY0.541$10.82
03-15 03:24H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.14$31.07
03-15 03:24Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?BUY0.93$20.87
02-03 13:11Trump out as President before 2027?BUY0.85$29.75
02-03 13:11Tria FDV above $20M one day after launch?BUY0.995$15.92
02-03 13:05Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?BUY0.961$11.06
02-03 13:05Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch?BUY0.1059119025$2.26