surplusH
0x7a298d83b639a369a1538d5d3eca914315100db8
- Realised P&L
- $-468.89
- Volume
- $37.4k
- Markets traded
- 150
- Open portfolio
- $325.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded150
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$104.76at 0.046Will Kamala Harris go on SNL?
- +$13.20at 0.340UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)
- +$13.06at 0.740Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
- +$11.23at 0.980Microphones muted during ABC debate?
- +$10.78at 0.481Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-05 08:58 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.977 | $26.38 |
| 06-04 08:50 | Will the People Power Party win 4 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | BUY | 0.999 | $37.96 |
| 06-04 08:50 | Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.998 | $26.95 |
| 06-04 08:49 | Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.998 | $26.95 |
| 06-04 08:49 | Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $9.60 |
| 05-20 06:40 | Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.66 |
| 05-20 06:38 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | BUY | 0.95 | $10.45 |
| 05-20 06:37 | Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? | BUY | 0.984 | $21.65 |
| 03-15 03:28 | Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.541 | $10.82 |
| 03-15 03:24 | H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $31.07 |
| 03-15 03:24 | Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $20.87 |
| 02-03 13:11 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $29.75 |
| 02-03 13:11 | Tria FDV above $20M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.995 | $15.92 |
| 02-03 13:05 | Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? | BUY | 0.961 | $11.06 |
| 02-03 13:05 | Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1059119025 | $2.26 |