0xphilo
0x7be65adde3857af7d9de2aa5a976bf893fd826a6
- Realised P&L
- $-3.2k
- Volume
- $12.0k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-27.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.932 | 0.960 | $1.4k | +$40.38 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.595 | $1.2k | −$350.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.425 | $935.00 | −$231.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.594 | 0.505 | $353.50 | −$62.50 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.988 | $29.63 | +$1.13 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.347 | 0.336 | $16.80 | −$0.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$292.52at 0.355StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$94.05at 0.750AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan
- +$9.44at 0.175Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
- +$2.61at 0.830Xi Jinping out before 2027?
- +$2.30at 0.160StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-19 18:59 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $560.39 |
| 05-19 18:58 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $243.00 |
| 05-19 18:58 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $162.00 |
| 05-19 18:48 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9339999998 | $690.00 |
| 05-19 18:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.7612004989 | $5.00 |
| 05-19 18:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | SELL | 0.34 | $19.44 |
| 05-19 18:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |
| 05-19 18:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 05-04 18:13 | StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.39 | $3.90 |
| 05-04 18:13 | StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.76 | $549.22 |
| 04-23 12:03 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.933 | $23.60 |
| 04-01 17:15 | StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3901188741 | $200.00 |
| 01-24 13:24 | AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan | BUY | 0.75 | $82.61 |
| 01-24 13:18 | AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan | BUY | 0.7504445887 | $200.00 |
| 11-08 13:59 | Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7799998544 | $3.00 |