Niseko
0x801dbe416065cfa8ecffeae526eeb37f393fd8e0
- Realised P&L
- $34.89
- Volume
- $6.91M
- Markets traded
- 1,459
- Open portfolio
- $73.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,459
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.2kat 0.063Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$14.5kat 0.318Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$7.0kat 0.688US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$6.9kat 0.729Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
- +$6.8kat 0.573Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 17:19 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8193917 | $81.94 |
| 08-02 16:40 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8398490834 | $578.65 |
| 08-02 16:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8406904211 | $159.73 |
| 08-02 16:33 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8392065 | $33.57 |
| 08-02 16:33 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8378765556 | $150.82 |
| 08-02 16:32 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8392512821 | $654.62 |
| 08-02 13:42 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 08-02 13:40 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.98 | $166.60 |
| 08-02 12:40 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.94 | $61.10 |
| 08-02 11:34 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.9352386667 | $140.29 |
| 08-02 11:07 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 08-02 11:06 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.9492 | $94.92 |
| 08-02 11:06 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.9588799 | $958.88 |
| 08-02 11:03 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.8763870968 | $271.68 |
| 08-01 17:59 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $359.56 |