miskulinac
0x8390808cefaf138f02b7fb0beff93148ce0809f1
- Realised P&L
- $-11.2k
- Volume
- $942.5k
- Markets traded
- 253
- Open portfolio
- $18.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded253
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.837 | 0.570 | $11.4k | −$5.3k |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.534 | 0.590 | $4.9k | +$465.11 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m? · Yes | 0.732 | 0.381 | $1.2k | −$1.1k |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? · No | 0.840 | 0.885 | $449.46 | +$22.86 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.371 | 0.001 | $1.02 | −$755.48 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.658 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$263.19 |
| Spread: Argentina (-2.5) · Argentina | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.85 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.235 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.50 |
| Spread: Colombia (-2.5) · Colombia | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.00 |
| Spread: Morocco (-3.5) · Morocco | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Spread: Spain (-4.5) · Spain | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.64 |
| Spread: Colombia (-3.5) · Colombia | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Spread: Argentina (-5.5) · Argentina | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.15 |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 · Under | 0.305 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.50 |
| Spread: Spain (-3.5) · Spain | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$155.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.8kat 0.765US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$3.3kat 0.455US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.930US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$950.00at 0.050Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)
- +$884.99at 0.083Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 13:12 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $188.00 |
| 08-02 11:47 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m? | BUY | 0.73 | $3.65 |
| 08-02 10:45 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m? | BUY | 0.7363 | $368.15 |
| 08-02 10:31 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m? | BUY | 0.7309731694 | $1.9k |
| 08-02 07:35 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.84 | $356.74 |
| 08-02 03:04 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $3.1k |
| 08-02 03:03 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.53 | $797.58 |
| 08-02 02:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.51 | $560.41 |
| 08-01 18:10 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | SELL | 0.6 | $135.32 |
| 08-01 18:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $705.32 |
| 08-01 18:03 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $14.35 |
| 08-01 17:34 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $76.00 |
| 07-31 21:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.71 | $7.10 |
| 07-31 21:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.989 | $989.00 |
| 07-31 21:10 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $711.44 |