onepingonly
0x950ea3d54a52dca7ec54e7a0338812450268f8e5
- Realised P&L
- $-70.6k
- Volume
- $6.41M
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $85.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.293 | 0.205 | $82.0k | −$35.4k |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.655 | $3.1k | +$1.1k |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.249 | 0.065 | $261.21 | −$738.79 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.025 | $122.67 | −$870.65 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.7k |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.8k |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.6k |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? · No | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.3kat 0.536SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
- +$5.9kat 0.878US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$3.7kat 0.340US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$558.76at 0.417US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
- +$99.84at 0.334US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 06:04 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY | 0.44403085 | $4.4k |
| 06-12 04:22 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY | 0.5805744042 | $4.8k |
| 06-11 02:21 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY | 0.6024012078 | $4.9k |
| 06-03 13:42 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $10.0k |
| 06-01 15:43 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5371890019 | $7.5k |
| 05-04 18:40 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $14.4k |
| 04-29 08:25 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.34 | $17.0k |
| 04-17 13:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1776090998 | $598.11 |
| 04-15 03:35 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $7.5k |
| 04-13 06:45 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.6k |
| 04-13 03:53 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.336009282 | $16.8k |
| 04-10 17:54 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.0k |
| 04-10 17:51 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $9.00 |
| 04-09 12:32 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $338.31 |
| 04-08 14:57 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2665292728 | $1.5k |