PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

onepingonly

0x950ea3d54a52dca7ec54e7a0338812450268f8e5

Realised P&L
$-70.6k
Volume
$6.41M
Markets traded
14
Open portfolio
$85.5k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded14
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration54.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample7 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration95.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.2930.205$82.0k$35.4k
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4200.655$3.1k+$1.1k
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes0.2490.065$261.21$738.79
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.1980.025$122.67$870.65
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No0.5800.000$0.00$6.7k
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.0120.000$0.00$20.8k
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$3.6k
US forces enter Iran by April 30? · No0.0050.000$0.00$22.0k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-12 06:04SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?BUY0.44403085$4.4k
06-12 04:22SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?BUY0.5805744042$4.8k
06-11 02:21SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?BUY0.6024012078$4.9k
06-03 13:42MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY0.006$10.0k
06-01 15:43MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY0.5371890019$7.5k
05-04 18:40Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.31$14.4k
04-29 08:25Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.34$17.0k
04-17 13:37Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.1776090998$598.11
04-15 03:35Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.3$7.5k
04-13 06:45Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY0.12$3.6k
04-13 03:53Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.336009282$16.8k
04-10 17:54Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.3$15.0k
04-10 17:51Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.3$9.00
04-09 12:32Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.3$338.31
04-08 14:57Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.2665292728$1.5k