pmcb
0xa56902ddb745968ad747f3a5a2a5f07ee68d96ec
- Realised P&L
- $32.2k
- Volume
- $1.35M
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $112.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.901 | 0.955 | $44.3k | +$2.5k |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.841 | 0.935 | $28.0k | +$2.8k |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.961 | $20.2k | +$1.9k |
| US recession by end of 2026? · No | 0.715 | 0.905 | $15.4k | +$3.2k |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.465 | $1.9k | −$540.00 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.365 | $1.5k | −$379.99 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.625 | $937.50 | −$217.50 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.085 | $21.25 | −$8.75 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? · No | 0.473 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.8k |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? · No | 0.745 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? · No | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$649.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.927No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$4.2kat 0.916Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$2.8kat 0.900US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$2.8kat 0.985Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$1.5kat 0.975Trump out as President by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 15:32 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.78 | $390.00 |
| 06-17 15:26 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $2.6k |
| 06-01 15:10 | Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.3k |
| 06-01 15:08 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $3.5k |
| 06-01 15:08 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $439.33 |
| 06-01 15:08 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $496.25 |
| 06-01 15:08 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $487.26 |
| 05-26 15:22 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? | BUY | 0.9700927644 | $522.88 |
| 05-26 15:20 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.77 | $15.40 |
| 05-26 15:17 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $433.87 |
| 05-26 15:14 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $535.71 |
| 05-26 15:14 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $1.2k |
| 05-26 15:14 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $4.2k |
| 04-01 15:51 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL | 0.64 | $42.09 |
| 03-22 07:41 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.65 | $792.92 |