0xb08b47570ef68ba02ba66a9c14c399c3caaf4b55
- Realised P&L
- $-11.3k
- Volume
- $432.8k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.043 | $767.00 | −$342.42 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.030 | $532.89 | +$95.69 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.125 | $479.04 | +$48.63 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.025 | $141.98 | −$118.69 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.001 | $8.14 | −$331.49 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.001 | $1.51 | −$148.48 |
| Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.001 | $1.18 | −$55.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.240US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$1.2kat 0.385US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$636.28at 0.190US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$633.99at 0.605US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
- +$488.41at 0.509US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 06:11 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0498799687 | $198.99 |
| 08-02 05:56 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0499248944 | $198.98 |
| 08-02 05:54 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0468911718 | $99.50 |
| 07-31 10:42 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.0699999992 | $79.08 |
| 07-31 10:42 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.0104902954 | $100.00 |
| 07-31 10:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.01 | $14.13 |
| 07-31 10:40 | Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0016059161 | $14.27 |
| 07-28 06:50 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.1299999995 | $178.48 |
| 07-28 06:50 | Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.03252442 | $120.00 |
| 07-28 06:46 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.0499136117 | $148.49 |
| 07-28 06:46 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0497801144 | $149.99 |
| 07-28 06:43 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.1299999994 | $172.86 |
| 07-28 06:43 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.0491667032 | $174.60 |
| 07-28 06:43 | Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0198428698 | $150.00 |
| 07-27 09:08 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $90.13 |