lamyk
0xc004b035b67be284e0d1db56c39e865df6cac095
- Realised P&L
- $8.3k
- Volume
- $248.2k
- Markets traded
- 320
- Open portfolio
- $7.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded320
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.792 | $3.2k | +$1.2k |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · Yes | 0.677 | 0.940 | $1.5k | +$424.40 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · Yes | 0.639 | 0.978 | $872.41 | +$302.41 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.207 | $830.24 | −$1.2k |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.925 | $581.18 | +$28.27 |
| Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.321 | 0.269 | $303.94 | −$59.44 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.107 | $107.50 | −$42.50 |
| Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.029 | $6.67 | −$14.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.739Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
- +$1.0kat 0.539Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
- +$607.86at 0.714Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$585.84at 0.349DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
- +$511.95at 0.325Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 07:03 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | SELL | 0.996 | $363.94 |
| 08-02 06:46 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.4494906678 | $164.24 |
| 08-01 16:00 | Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.3226527778 | $139.39 |
| 08-01 16:00 | Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.0906881674 | $21.23 |
| 08-01 10:12 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2297158961 | $176.88 |
| 08-01 09:17 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $286.90 |
| 08-01 08:54 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6645147635 | $500.75 |
| 08-01 07:35 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $504.88 |
| 08-01 01:14 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | SELL | 0.8421238938 | $523.38 |
| 07-31 17:10 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | BUY | 0.8276311513 | $1.1k |
| 07-30 09:14 | Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | SELL | 0.6944956432 | $1.0k |
| 07-30 06:20 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.88 | $552.90 |
| 07-29 18:16 | Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | SELL | 0.59 | $17.70 |
| 07-29 18:11 | Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6673066667 | $20.02 |
| 07-28 20:50 | Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.4042185339 | $584.50 |