BlackJellyfish
0xc0738cefabe7176efad87a40c45b9fc2f5eb7c59
- Realised P&L
- $3.4k
- Volume
- $22.3k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $4.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar15.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$793.30at 0.427U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
- +$304.43at 0.032Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?
- +$206.00at 0.794Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$137.19at 0.738Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in July?
- +$44.80at 0.840Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 06:21 | Will there be between 37 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $540.64 |
| 08-02 02:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | SELL | 0.36 | $43.01 |
| 08-02 02:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.89 | $370.93 |
| 08-02 02:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.95 | $122.43 |
| 08-02 01:52 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.93 | $372.00 |
| 07-31 22:27 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.27 | $105.57 |
| 07-31 21:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.34 | $113.22 |
| 07-31 21:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.27 | $105.57 |
| 07-31 20:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.36 | $75.48 |
| 07-31 20:00 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.023 | $23.00 |
| 07-31 19:33 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | SELL | 0.994 | $1.4k |
| 07-31 18:30 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.359 | $71.80 |
| 07-31 01:11 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.954 | $1.2k |
| 07-31 01:06 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $14.82 |
| 07-31 00:58 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.031 | $3.10 |