0xcDD43D196e75F5C6BB63924d618fd20487dc4Cf8-1781459992957
0xcdd43d196e75f5c6bb63924d618fd20487dc4cf8
- Realised P&L
- $3.41
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $121.05
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? · Yes | 0.266 | 0.685 | $121.05 | +$74.07 |
| Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.676 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.39 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.559 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.82at 0.489Will Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July?
- +$9.46at 0.530Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?
- +$7.67at 0.749Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?
- +$6.59at 0.560Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners
- +$3.20at 0.610Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 14:04 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? | BUY | 0.2810592709 | $26.71 |
| 07-20 14:02 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? | BUY | 0.2481623408 | $20.27 |
| 07-20 08:07 | Will Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July? | SELL | 0.999 | $48.62 |
| 07-18 07:00 | Will the AQI at the World Cup final be 90 or higher? | BUY | 0.34 | $35.45 |
| 07-17 05:49 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? | SELL | 0.21 | $3.40 |
| 07-17 05:48 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? | SELL | 0.21 | $26.99 |
| 07-17 05:46 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? | SELL | 0.22 | $7.90 |
| 07-15 23:45 | Will Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July? | BUY | 0.49 | $21.40 |
| 07-15 23:43 | Will Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 07-10 20:41 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? | BUY | 0.1925712245 | $34.78 |
| 06-30 10:04 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5589999828 | $12.22 |
| 06-30 10:03 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $12.87 |
| 06-29 22:33 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999906 | $22.70 |
| 06-24 21:48 | Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners | BUY | 0.5599999733 | $8.39 |
| 06-24 21:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |