sleepymonkey
0xce4d7123b294829c505302800fc7bc0590b3d0e2
- Realised P&L
- $-8.4k
- Volume
- $782.5k
- Markets traded
- 868
- Open portfolio
- $21.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded868
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$576.00at 0.280Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$523.40at 0.128Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$384.89at 0.646US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
- +$317.90at 0.692Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$299.28at 0.824US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 23:06 | Will Robert Alferink win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.3264056313 | $22.26 |
| 08-02 21:07 | Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.44 | $4.90 |
| 08-02 21:06 | Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.4647146353 | $281.08 |
| 08-02 19:59 | Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | SELL | 0.13 | $26.00 |
| 08-02 19:14 | Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? | BUY | 0.3276816878 | $448.95 |
| 08-02 19:04 | Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.8% and 3.0%? | BUY | 0.1720591795 | $142.43 |
| 08-02 18:59 | Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? | BUY | 0.323 | $1.61 |
| 08-01 21:28 | Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.60 |
| 08-01 20:02 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.66 | $50.16 |
| 08-01 20:01 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.66 | $147.84 |
| 08-01 18:56 | Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 08-01 12:52 | Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? | BUY | 0.88 | $12.32 |
| 08-01 09:33 | Israeli forces enter Beirut by August 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $160.55 |
| 07-31 14:21 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | BUY | 0.88 | $67.76 |
| 07-31 12:00 | Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia? | BUY | 0.43425 | $173.70 |