compute
0xd0d920677cf913e289b6467dde2140d4fa43d6db
- Realised P&L
- $7.8k
- Volume
- $1.08M
- Markets traded
- 241
- Open portfolio
- $5.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded241
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.125 | $1.6k | −$340.10 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · Yes | 0.224 | 0.175 | $1.0k | −$282.13 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.321 | 0.300 | $849.30 | −$60.51 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.065 | $775.16 | −$657.91 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.213 | 0.190 | $609.98 | −$75.16 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.049 | $272.37 | −$165.33 |
| Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.060 | $51.91 | −$12.67 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? · Yes | 0.499 | 0.090 | $4.78 | −$21.72 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.190 | $3.11 | +$0.00 |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.210 | $2.10 | +$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.373Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.550Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.215Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$769.53at 0.605Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
- +$717.04at 0.370Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:43 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $223.95 |
| 08-02 12:29 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $264.00 |
| 08-02 12:28 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $420.00 |
| 08-02 00:55 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | SELL | 0.2154681008 | $364.58 |
| 08-02 00:55 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.29 | $39.55 |
| 08-02 00:55 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | SELL | 0.4703990523 | $188.61 |
| 08-02 00:55 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | SELL | 0.62 | $65.84 |
| 08-01 16:31 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.33 | $13.20 |
| 08-01 16:21 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.33 | $276.54 |
| 08-01 14:49 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.32 | $8.92 |
| 08-01 11:46 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.3265864759 | $100.46 |
| 07-31 21:27 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 21:26 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | SELL | 0.1 | $25.51 |
| 07-31 21:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.5 | $536.47 |
| 07-31 21:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.66 | $401.64 |